-1
Gonzo262 [S] -1 points ago

Of course you can. Because the people trading in that market are still humans, and have the same human responses as people have had since markets started trading. This is a psychological effect, not a purely economic effect. If the Boomers and older Gen-X get spooked and decide to change the ratio of bonds to stocks in their 401K accounts the market is going to to shift. You can argue economic theory to a scared 60 year old all day long and it just isn't going to matter. That is why I said it is President Trump's big test. If people calm down then we go back to growth. If the CNN doom merchants win then we are going to bounce up and then head back down again. Economic fundamentals only kick in once the psychological panic has passed.

0
Gonzo262 [S] 0 points ago

What we have to watch for is a head and solders bounce. This is where a crash hits and a lot of people are holding stock, but don't want to sell at depressed prices. So as soon as the stock market approaches the prior level all of these people sell and you get this down, up down and then a dead cat bounce at the end. This is simply a system of psychology.

So the big test for Trump will be if the second drop is bigger or smaller than the initial drop. If it is smaller, then we are likely to head back up. Everyone who wants out of the market is out and those that are in are looking to make money on the rise. If the second droop punches through the prior low then it is just going to keep heading down.

1
Gonzo262 [S] 1 point ago

This is going to be a slow recovery. Because of the way the unemployment compensation has been structured a lot of people, who were working part time jobs, are getting more money on unemployment than they were from working. So there is a huge incentive to wait it out until they are sure the Chinese Cough is well and truly beaten. Why risk getting the WuFlu to go back to a $250 a week part time job when the government is willing to pay you $600 a month to stay home and play video games.

So even when the green light goes on small businesses are going to be creative in bringing back staff, unless the unemployment benefits are drastically cut. And politicians don't like to look like villains in an election year by cutting benefits.

2
Gonzo262 [S] 2 points ago

Amazingly the ships are actually similar in displacement, the RCGS Resolute being a very small cruise ship. However patrol boats tend to be very lightly built in order to get maximum speed and ice breakers are designed to ram into ice bergs and shatter them. So beer can getting hit by a steam roller.

2
Gonzo262 [S] 2 points ago

It will definitely slow it down for a generation in the same way that the Great Depression slowed down the big banks until the generation that had experienced it had retired from power. The people who were adults during the great depression would never trust the big banks again. They demanded legislation that separated mortgage banks from investment banks. Limited the amount of leverage on the stock market. Required larger deposit retention rates and only extended FDIC protection to mortgage banks, not the highly speculative investment banks. There is a reason that all of those restrictions came off in the 1980's and 1990's. That was when the people who were in their twenties and thirties during the great depression started to die off or at a minimum retire from public life.

Same today. Anyone who is an adult during this crisis is never going to allow foreign companies to control our medical supplies again. Open borders is over because if you don't have borders you can't close the borders in event of a pandemic. The people who grew up in the trophy generation are experiencing their first "Real" problems. Using the wrong gender pronoun is never going to be that big of a deal to them again.

TLDR: This will not stop globalism forever. But. it will probably set it back for another 50 years.

4
Gonzo262 [S] 4 points ago

They needed an excuse. Every form of debt, federal, corporate and consumer, was at the highest levels ever measured. Bubbles are going to pop. The question was never if, but when. That debt needed to come out of the system and there are only two ways to do it. 1) Default, all of those student loans for comparative gender studies and million dollar mortgages on one room LA condos were going to get defaulted on. Very bad for the big bankers. 2) Hyper inflation. The government prints unlimited amounts of worthless currency that people then trade their labor and property for. In the end the bankers end up with property and the people end up with worthless electronic numbers. At least when they used to print money you could use it as toilet paper and kindling.

The bankers needed some reason that couldn't be blamed on them for the massive inevitable economic downturn. Something that would make sure that the people not only accepted the infinite printing, but demanded it. Then the Chinese Cough Pandemic (CCP) came along and it was like a gift from whatever evil deity the Wall Street bankers worship. So they told their tools in the MSM to hype up the panic and their tools in the Democrat party to ensure that there were no effective measures to stop the diseases spread.

So now the county is shut down. The Fed is openly promising to create infinite currency from nothing. The government is buying up all the bad assets shifting the burden of their failure from the banks to the taxpayers. And the blame for the coming depression will fall either on Trump or the Chinese. Either way the important thing to Wall Street is that it won't fall on the bankers as they enslave the entire US population.

5
Gonzo262 [S] 5 points ago

Of course. She is a ruthless narcissist.

6
Gonzo262 [S] 6 points ago

Two weeks ahead is actually optimal. You have to let people know what is ahead so that they can plan appropriately. So you lock down to April 15, then extend it a week at a time, two weeks out. Two months out is just stupid.

4
Gonzo262 [S] 4 points ago

Disney will come through this, but they may go into chapter 11 to hold off the payments on the massive amount of debt they took on to buy up all the parts of their monopoly. If there was any justice this should be where they get broken up, but the world has no justice.

2
Gonzo262 [S] 2 points ago

If they pull out Biden and then give the nomination to someone with 0 primary delegates, who never participated in a debate, who never had to answer questions despite the fact that Sanders has the second most delegates the Bernie Bros are going to riot. And honestly at that point I can't blame them. If Biden can't do it the nomination should go to the person that has the second most delegates.

This is by the way exactly what the Democrats tried to pull in 1968, after RFK (the delegate leader) was assassinated. McCarthy was in second place, but was a hard left anti-war candidate. So they nominated Humphrey who hadn't run in a single primary. The riots in Chicago have become a moment seared into the cities history.

2
Gonzo262 [S] 2 points ago

USA 1900 - Seize the day.

USA 2020 - A seizure a day.

9
Gonzo262 [S] 9 points ago

The hospital my wife works at in the Chicago Suburbs is sending staff home because they have no patients. All of the elective procedures are cancelled and they only have 15 Chinese Virus cases. They are running at less than 40% capacity. We are a very long way from having to make DNR and triage decisions.

2
Gonzo262 [S] 2 points ago

It means that the last person out of Illinois needs to turn out the lights.

1
Gonzo262 [S] 1 point ago (edited)

Disagree strongly. There are essentials and luxuries. Interestingly Luxuries tend to be the most profitable in good times, but fall away to nothing in hard times. This tends to cause the boom / bust cycle natural to a free economy. Farming wheat is an endeavor that requires massive investment in land and equipment and provides a very low margin per unit sold. It is however absolutely essential because if you don't eat, you don't stay alive.

Opposite is something like Disney. Their profit margins are incredible because the movie costs the same to make no matter how many people watch it. So a blockbuster can create truly unimaginable levels of profit. However it is a pure luxury. If I don't see the next avengers movie it inst going to do me any harm. So if it is a choice between bread or Captain Marvel, the captain is definitely not essential.

3
Gonzo262 [S] 3 points ago

That's not true at all. When you buy the 237th you have that "Don't tell Mere" look. Now if you were real careful when picking that wife the reason you don't want to tell her is because she is going to want to add it to her collection. That awesome little subcompact 9mm, good luck ever getting that one back.

2
Gonzo262 [S] 2 points ago

That fourth house isn't going to pay for itself.

15
Gonzo262 [S] 15 points ago

He forgot the most important rule. If someone screws you to get a job, they had better get the job. Note it wasn't the ones who got rich and famous that were taking him to court. It was the ones that put out and then didn't get the pay off.

2
Gonzo262 [S] 2 points ago

I always tell my ultra left wing college professor aunt that if the workers of the world ever do unite it isn't going to end well for her and people like her. I'm not her favorite.

3
Gonzo262 [S] 3 points ago

Why cancel the debates? Sure no live audience. Get Joe and Bernie in a studio with a moderator and they aren't going to spread anything by stupidity and lies.

2
Gonzo262 [S] 2 points ago

The big question of this election. Who made more money, Bernie's Real Estate Agent or Bloomberg's advertising agent?

2
Gonzo262 [S] 2 points ago

This is the key. Get an alt account and then keep posting about how they will keep screwing over the revolution as long as they can keep winning with plutocrats. They love those big words so just think of it as talk like a commie day.
"The entitled corporatist cabal running the Democratic establishment are exploiting the the people. Only by bringing down the Democrat party's patriarchy can we establish a new socialist utopia. They have to lose so we can win!"

Oh they love that shit.

"By losing spectacularly to Dumpf this year the progressives will be positioned to sweep the entire government in 2024. Losing makes us stronger! Defeat is victory!"

Yep I read 1984, back in 1984, and unlike the morons over as SandersForPresident I recognized that it was a cautionary tale, not an instruction manual.

1
Gonzo262 [S] 1 point ago

All I know is that it is 2020 and that means Tuesday is Soylent Green day. Adds a whole new meaning to eat the rich.

1
Gonzo262 [S] 1 point ago

Tim Pool will be crying in his beanie.

1
Gonzo262 [S] 1 point ago

“In difficult ground, press on; In encircled ground, devise stratagems; In death ground, fight.” - Sun Tzu:

It is that last one, Death Ground that President Trump has proved the master in. Death ground is where retreat is not possible and you either triumph or die. President Trump has been the master of putting the RINOs in congress onto the political equivalent of death ground. He provokes the enemy so that there is no chance of negotiation. He ensures that defeat will end the careers of the congress critters in question. Share in the president's victory or be uterly destroyed along with him, take your pick.

view more: Next ›