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BlondeBombshell88 22 points ago +22 / -0

Yep, I’m making a Costco run on Monday. Already got my first gun and some survival supplies. I rented a cabin out in the mountains because shits gonna hit the fan in LA when he wins

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BlondeBombshell88 1 point ago +1 / -0

It's because only 1/2 of 1/3 have voted - and they're probably all democrats. There is no early in person voting and PA has a history of frauding mail in ballots.

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BlondeBombshell88 1 point ago +1 / -0

Hello everyone! I'm back again with my updated vote tracking spreadsheet for 10/29/2020. Still looking positive! Arizona: Dem lead has shrunk by another 11,063 to 64,239 and continues to trend downward. Florida: Dem lead has been shrinking daily since 10/23, it is now at an all time low of 204,277. In 2016, Trump was down by 90,111 in early voting on Election day and still won the state! Looks like the way things are going, he could be around that number by next Tuesday. He's averaging about 50,798 gain daily since 10/23, which means by 11/2, we could see Trump and Biden at a tie with early voting going into election day.. That is HUGE. Michigan: Rep lead has been growing steadily since 10/22, Trump leads Michigan by 47,667. (For perspective, before Election Day of 2016, he was down in Michigan by over 22,000, so this is a huge positive swing) Minnesota: The Democrat lead shrunk for the first time in MN! They lost 13,784 advantage. Trump is now down by 204,077, but this is purely speculative as Minnesota does not have registered party ballots. This is only going off of TargetSmarts modeling which leans democrat. Nevada: Democrat lead has been fluctuating and is currently around 43,552. This is down 6,108 from yesterday. This is one to keep an eye on as Trump was down by 30,153 before election day and only lost the state in 2016 by 27,202 votes or 2.4%. If we can keep that lead shrinking, he has a chance to flip Nevada! New Mexico: Trump is down by 92,648. Before election day 2016, he was down by 46,407 and lost the state by 65,567 votes (8.3%). So he needs to shrink the lead dramatically in the next few days or he will most likely lose the state. Pennsylvania - this is the state I'm most worried about. Trump is down by 962,128. In 2016, he was up by 8,925 votes before election day. Now, I've heard most of the early votes have come from heavy Democrat counties in PA, like Philadelphia, so these numbers could be very skewed towards Democrats. Wisconsin: Trump has been gaining a lead in Wisconsin and is now at 104,228. Up 20,156 from yesterday This looks promising!

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BlondeBombshell88 6 points ago +6 / -0

He’s up in early voting there lol. Last time he was down in early votes and still won

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BlondeBombshell88 2 points ago +2 / -0

Registered party yes. I definitely think we will see FAR more D->R crossover than the reverse. Just look at the Walkaway movement.

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BlondeBombshell88 3 points ago +3 / -0

I have heard that the majority of these votes have come from Allegheny and Philadelphia counties which are heavy Democrat. So that may account for the D huge leads. I hope

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BlondeBombshell88 3 points ago +3 / -0

I'm using https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/president-results?icid=election_nav which uses TargetSmart modeling for the registered party share (look at my note under the post). I definitely believe Trump is going to win Florida. Also feel the same about what you said about PA

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BlondeBombshell88 3 points ago +3 / -0

Considering his leads in MI and WI, AZ looks like it’s heading that direction as well. FL he will definitely win; he could have 283 EC votes if he lost MN, Nevada, and Pennsylvania - still win with 272 votes if he lost AZ

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BlondeBombshell88 6 points ago +6 / -0

Yes I believe he has a good chance of winning, that’s why I added a note that it appears Philadelphia has the majority of votes right now

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BlondeBombshell88 9 points ago +9 / -0

Here is my updated vote tracking spreadsheet for 10/28/2020. Great news! Arizona: Dem lead has shrunk by another 24,000 to 75,301 and continues to trend downward. Florida: Dem lead has been shrinking daily since 10/23, it is now at an all time low of 245,912. Michigan: Rep lead has been growing steadily since 10/22, Trump leads Michigan by 45,962. (For perspective, before Election Day of 2016, he was down in Michigan by over 22,000, so this is a huge positive swing) Minnesota: Trump is down by 217,861, but this is purely speculative as Minnesota does not have registered party ballots. This is only going off of TargetSmarts modeling which leans democrat. Nevada: Democrat lead has been fluctuating and is currently around 49,000. This is one to keep an eye on as Trump was down by 30,153 before election day and only lost the state in 2016 by 27,202 votes or 2.4%. If we can keep that lead shrinking, he has a chance to flip Nevada! New Mexico: Trump is down by 88,386. Before election day 2016, he was down by 46,407 and lost the state by 65,567 votes (8.3%). So he needs to shrink the lead dramatically in the next few days or he will most likely lose the state. Pennsylvania - this is the state I'm most worried about. Trump is down by 882,626. In 2016, he was up by 8,925 votes before election day. Now, I've heard most of the early votes have come from heavy Democrat counties in PA, like Philadelphia, so these numbers could be very skewed towards Democrats. Wisconsin: Trump has been gaining a lead in Wisconsin and is now at 84,072. This looks promising!

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BlondeBombshell88 1 point ago +1 / -0

It took me 10 days to get a gun in California. It’s not hard

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BlondeBombshell88 8 points ago +8 / -0

He was the best part of Independence Day!

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BlondeBombshell88 5 points ago +6 / -1

I would argue that the wine is most important. LOL

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