Everything is speculation. This is very different than us targeting the general on Iranian territory. He was off the reservation conspiring with seditious elements in a foreign country, and was not an official diplomatic guest of the recognized Iraqi government.
Iran is going to feel pressured to do something but they're also shaken by the fact that POTUS acted so decisively.
Smart money says Iran will do the minimum necessary to save face without risking their navy or nuclear program.
That said, smart money often loses when betting on isolated dicatatorships lacking the consent of the governed, especially in a part of the world that only respects force.
I maintain that the US can take Iran apart militarily and economically without ever stepping foot on their territory. Iran knows this. Their ONLY military options to pull us into assymetric war are increased terrorism, piracy, or (god forbid) marching into Iraq or another neighbor.
Iran won't "for sure" anything.
Everything is speculation. This is very different than us targeting the general on Iranian territory. He was off the reservation conspiring with seditious elements in a foreign country, and was not an official diplomatic guest of the recognized Iraqi government.
Iran is going to feel pressured to do something but they're also shaken by the fact that POTUS acted so decisively.
Smart money says Iran will do the minimum necessary to save face without risking their navy or nuclear program.
That said, smart money often loses when betting on isolated dicatatorships lacking the consent of the governed, especially in a part of the world that only respects force.
I maintain that the US can take Iran apart militarily and economically without ever stepping foot on their territory. Iran knows this. Their ONLY military options to pull us into assymetric war are increased terrorism, piracy, or (god forbid) marching into Iraq or another neighbor.
It's possible. The mullahs fear a domestic uprising most of all, I think.
The question is ultimately if they choose to try to prove their strength by lashing out, or by lashing in. The latter is probably the safer bet.